Pandemic Megatrends: Disruptive or Overblown?
Human behavior is notoriously difficult to change. Yet, disruptions of the magnitude seen during the coronavirus pandemic have essentially reshaped every aspect of our lives. During our lifetime, there has likely never been a more volatile time in terms of shifting human behavior. We were forced to experience new ways of interacting, working, learning, shopping, traveling, and eating meals. Our daily routines and general way of life prior to March 2020 now seems like a distant dream. A critical question remains though…how have these experiences actually changed preferences and habits in ways that might persist long into the future.
Maybe the biggest downside (and/or upside) of creating hundreds of YouTube videos is that you have an endless catalog of your documented thoughts. I’m bringing this up because on May 5, 2020…I made some “way too early predictions” around long-term opportunities created by “COVID-19 Effect” human behavioral changes. In the below YouTube video, I essentially proclaimed my ability to “see around the corner” on a collection of consumer trends during the height of market volatility/uncertainty.
So, how did I do? ⬇️
[Trend Prediction #1] DIY Fast-Moving Consumer Goods
What happens when a whole bunch of panic buying leaves retail shelves empty of your normal packaged food and beverage luxuries? You adapt. Surprisingly, many of those consumers eager to (or forced to) improve their cooking and baking skills ended up genuinely enjoying it.
Have we continued to cook, bake, and drink more at-home? Yes.
At the height of the pandemic, Americans ate 88% of their meals at home, up five percentage points from pre-pandemic levels. Two years later, at-home meals eaten might have fallen to 85%, but that two percentage point increase from 2019 levels is equivalent to an estimated 12 billion meals and snacks annually.
[Trend Prediction #2] At-Home Medical
What happens when hospitals and various other healthcare providers are forced to delay routine non-critical services because they’re overwhelmed (or restricted) by the COVID-19 pandemic? You adapt. That has caused a profound effect where individuals went from viewing themselves as patients to now viewing themselves as consumers in the healthcare market.
Have we continued to demand more at-home medical services and innovations? Yes.
Telehealth utilization has stabilized at levels 38x higher than before the pandemic. Consumers will continue to demand a personalized and holistic approach of daily wellness and long-term healthcare combined with the convenience of products and services being available at their fingertips, all from the comfort and safety of their home.
[Trend Prediction #3] “Burnout Syndrome”
What happens when that feeling of being in the hamster wheel of competition is exacerbated by the disconnect between time in our clocks and time in our minds drifting apart? It causes a tipping point for people to realize everything is too much and mental well-being must be prioritized more in the future.
84% of psychologists who treat anxiety disorders said they have seen an increase in demand for anxiety treatment since the start of the pandemic. Similarly, demand for treatment of depression is also up, with 72% of psychologists who treat depressive disorders saying they have seen an increase.
We might hear the phrases “mental health” and “mental well-being” more often now, but it’s still highly stigmatized and we have a long way to go to breakdown the walls and humanize this vulnerable human state. Almost 1 in 5 Americans struggle with mental health issues on a daily basis and nearly 27 million people are battling mental illness without treatment.
[Trend Prediction #4] Virtual Experiences
What happens when everything in the physical world gets cancelled because of the COVID-19 pandemic and you have stay-at-home restrictions? You adapt. As these lockdowns encouraged people to turn to technology for social connection, distraction, and exercise, virtual reality broke down walls around its lack of accessibility and mystifying reputation.
What was the most popular app in Apple’s App Store on Christmas Day? The Oculus virtual reality app…the one you need to manage the Oculus VR headset. Furthermore, Facebook (parent company of Oculus) also changed its company name to Meta Platforms. While all this talk about the metaverse is still early, consider the impact of generational change. Generation Alpha (those born between 2011 and 2025) express themselves, often learn, and constantly socialize through virtual worlds they can touch, change, and collaborate in. That’s not going to stop. Rather, the capabilities of these virtual worlds will expand, their ease of use will improve, and their significance will grow.
[Trend Prediction #5] Work From Home
What happened when workers got a taste of that work from home life? Yes, working from home will likely never be possible for every job. But for those who have the option, it’s now evident that it is feasible, even beneficial.
Have we continued to work from home more? Yes.
Being that the American economy is predominately made up of services, there’s an elevated stickiness to the work from home shift post-pandemic. In fact, projections show that one-quarter of all jobs in America will be remote by the end of 2022. That’s a massive increase from only 6% that worked primarily from home before the pandemic. Are we near peak work from home levels that were seen in 2020? No, but employers, which have massive fixed costs associated with traditional work environments, were naturally going to push back on the work from home shift. That being said, an elongated “Great Resignation” period will securely swing the pendulum of power towards workers that will seek more flexibility through a hybrid model.
[Trend Prediction #6] At-Home Fitness
What happens when traditional gym experiences are unavailable? You adapt. Many consumers purchased home gym (especially connected fitness) equipment and wearables that provided them an with a superior gym experience by integrating layers of competition, community, data tracking, and actionable insights.
Yes, poor headlines from Peloton, Tonal, and others show a pullback from historic levels of demand, but the digitization of fitness is still a nascent market that’s growing. What’s interesting about the progression of at-home fitness is that it gets a bit of a bullwhip effect from some of my previous trend predictions…
- At-Home Medical = What happens when rising healthcare costs can be minimized with the sharing of at-home connected fitness equipment and wearables data?
- “Burnout Syndrome” = What’s an amazing stress relieving activity?
- Virtual Experiences = Aren’t you already working out in a virtual world on these connected fitness platforms like Peloton?
- Work From Home = If you work more from home, wouldn’t it be easier to fit in a daily workout on your home equipment?
Final Thoughts
Whether my predictions were right or wrong…that really isn’t the point. The coronavirus pandemic created an inflection point that led people to reassess their priorities and needs, and buy goods and consume information and entertainment in new ways. If there’s one thing we can be certain about in these times, it’s that our behaviors have changed significantly because of COVID-19…have you taken advantage of this opportunity-filled business landscape?
