Sports Nutrition Industry Event Predictions for 2022
What happens when a bunch of Swolbraham Lincoln types circle around a price inflated five pound whey protein powder container and start making sports and active nutrition industry event predictions? This article is basically the personification of that imaginary scenario.
Since I’m deeply ingrained in the space, I call this my “outlandish sports and active nutrition event predictions” list. Just like my other end of year prediction lists, my one big rule is that I don’t allow carryover predictions from previous years. Additionally, since these are outlandish predictions, I try and take Happy Gilmore level swings. I do this because it makes the content more entertaining for both myself to compile and you guys to consume.
Plus, if I get any of these correct, it makes for sweet callout clips that I get to share all other my social media accounts…
Disclaimer: Despite getting lucky on several outlandish predictions throughout the previous years (33 percent isn’t too shabby), I do not have any insider information about any mentioned predictions and this list is thrown together annually for entertainment purposes only.
Well…I guess I have delayed this enough, let’s jump into this year’s prediction list. In no particular order, here are my outlandish event predictions for the sports and active industry in 2022.
Goli Nutrition Gets Acquired
Can you believe that Goli Nutrition, a company founded in 2019, already does well north of $500 million in annualized revenue? To further blow your mind, it does this with only a handful of SKUs.
In late-2020, the gummy supplement company engaged Centerview Partners to explore a sale. The initial process has drawn the attention from private equity firms, large strategics, and SPAC issuers.
Why hasn’t anyone pounced yet?
It’s likely a combination of the revenue base and growth rate is making the deal expensive. After you toss in the fact that some of that growth is likely “COVID-19 Effect” aided, fast follower competitive pressure is happening, and there’s an unlikelihood of deep margin expansion and it becomes a scary investment proposition.
I don’t personally believe gummy supplements are a fad, as the delivery format is only growing in consumer interest and product development breadth. This will help Goli Nutrition sustain revenue growth, albeit slowing in nature due to large of large numbers, by leaning into a deeper product pipeline. If Goli Nutrition does get acquired, it will likely be in the latter part of 2022 when more dust settles from the pandemic health gold rush.
GHOST Energy Outsells the Supplements
GHOST Lifestyle was founded in 2016 and sells a variety of sports and active nutrition products like Legend pre-workout, GHOST Whey, and GHOST Gamer. GHOST Lifestyle currently sells over $100 million in those sports and active nutrition supplements. It’s also arguably the most successful brand that has launched in the last half-decade within the sports and active nutrition industry.
On the other hand, GHOST Energy launched as a joint-venture with AB InBev in late-2020 and sells energy beverages. In its first full year of retail sales, GHOST Energy become one of the most popular products in every retail distribution point. Despite the more than four-year head start, I predict that GHOST Energy will outsell its entire supplement lineup in 2022. This would essentially grow sales 4x in its second full year. For reference on how wild this prediction is, unless you’re a BigCo CPG food and beverage brand that’s launching an extension, reaching more than $100 million in revenue in year two is almost unheard of!
Supplements Become FSA HSA Approved
Well not all types of supplements. You can’t get some type of tax deduction on that high-stimulant pre-workout you take daily.
Regardless, the pandemic has accelerated consumer behavior towards a more proactive approach to health and wellness. This is a major reason why supplement sales are growing at the pace they are right now. Fact is, there needs to be more discussion around incentives to help keep people healthy. That’s the base case for extending flexible spending arrangements (FSAs) and/or health savings accounts (HSAs) eligibility to dietary supplements.
In my opinion, FSAs or HSAs are really a super obvious way to help consumers with their self-care expenses by expanding eligibility in tax-preferred healthcare accounts. After more than a decade of trying, I think the supplement industry finally gets Congress to notice and they makes it happen in 2022.
The Vitamin Shoppe Private Label Explosion
The Vitamin Shoppe has always been best known as a place that sells other people’s brands. Since taking over as CEO in mid-2018, Sharon Leite has wanted to change that perception. While private labels have long been offered by The Vitamin Shoppe, they have been an afterthought for the specialty supplement retailer, averaging in the low 20 percent of total revenue.
This is very different than its main physical retail competitor GNC that does over 50% of its total revenue from private label brands.
Over the last several years, The Vitamin Shoppe has overhauled much of its existing private label offerings and launched new targeted brands. With The Vitamin Shoppe’s recent shift in strategy to start allowing franchising opportunities for the first time in company history, it will look to incentivize these new franchisees to further shift its business toward private label brands, as it will drive margin expansion and customer retention. I predict that private label will make up being one-third or more of The Vitamin Shoppe’s total revenue in 2022.
Entertainment IP Licensing Will Go Wild
The use of entertainment IP has long been underutilized in the sports/active nutrition industry. In 2016, I wrote an article that stated…
“licensing will be this Perfect Shakers’ strategy to win, but only if they secure the relationships fast. They need a seasoned team member that is primed to lead this part of company and make deals with the likes of Disney, professional/college sports leagues, Mattel, and Warner Bros., to name a few.”
Perfect Shaker did indeed grab many additional licenses, but they weren’t aggressive enough, as now almost every shaker bottle competitor has also grabbed countless entertainment IP licenses.
Shaker bottle companies are one thing, but sports and active nutrition brands are another thing. Yes, MyProtein did a few in the past year. G Fuel has been doing them for years. Insane Labz did one with HellBoy a few years ago and Ryse Supplements just did one with Godzilla.
But everyone is having entertainment IP envy looking at GHOST Lifestyle’s collaboration with the 90s version of Space Jam. This will spark a number of sports and active nutrition brands to secure entertainment IP licenses. The problem will be that almost all of the “creations” will suck!
Bonus Prediction with No Explanation
Glanbia Performance Nutrition acquires a brand, likely in lifestyle nutrition side of the portfolio.
Final Thoughts
What did you think of my outlandish event predictions in the sports and active nutrition industry for 2022?
Do you have other events that you think I should have considered (and didn’t in previous years)? I’d love to hear about them, and you can that by engaging with me on any of my other social accounts…
